Summary
- The 3,000 year Israeli-Palestinian conflict has flared, yet again.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu’s 3 decade intransigent policies have stoked Palestinian frustration and anger; empowering Palestinian extremist like Hamas and Hezbollah.
- Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel was designed to provoke an Israeli military response that would lead to world condemnation of Israel.
- Israel’s response has resulted in the death of tens of thousands of Palestinian innocents and world condemnation.
- Hamas and Hezbollah’s goal of killing or evicting all Jews from Israel will never happen as the Jews of Israel will threaten nuclear annihilation of Middle East before they leave Israel, for they “have nowhere else to go.”
- Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered significant degradation of their military power and, through the concerted application of international geopolitical power could also be rendered politically irrelevant.
- A joint US – Saudi Arabia initiative could alter the combatants’ geopolitical calculus and force them to either acquiesce to a two-state solution or choose to be completely isolated from the world community.
Historic Origins of the Conflict
In Genesis 17:8, God said to Abraham: “And I will give unto thee, and to thy seed after thee,… all the land of Canaan, for an everlasting possession…”
Abraham and Hagar begat Ishmael.
Abraham and Sarah begat Isaac.
Ishmael’s descendants, the Arab people, and Isaac’s descendants, the Jewish people, both settled in the land of Canaan.
And so began a 3 millennium battle for a small piece of real estate, now known as Israel.
The Contemporary Precipitant of the Conflict
The most significant event that inexorably led to Hamas’s horrific October 7, 2023 attack on Israel was the assassination of Israel’s Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. He was assassinated by a right wing settler who opposed Rabin’s efforts to seek peace with the Palestinians, an endeavor that could have led to the creation of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and in Gaza.
One year after Rabin’s assassination, Benjamin Netanyahu was first elected to be Israel’s Prime Minister (1996-1999, 2009-2021, 2022-present.)
On March 16, 2015, an interviewer ask Netanyahu: “If you are a prime minister, there will be no Palestinian state?” Netanyahu responded, “Indeed.”
In his 3 decade tenure at the highest levels of government, Netanyahu has repeatedly confiscated Palestinians’ land so he could expand Israeli settlements into the West Bank so as to enhance his political power base—despite repeated protestations from the United States government.
The absence of political progress toward a two-state solution and the serial theft of Palestinian property generated immense frustration and anger among Palestinians, undercutting the political influence of more moderate Palestinian politicians and strengthening the political power of the most radical wing of the Palestinian political spectrum, Hamas.
Hamas’s Covenant 1988 rejects Israel’s right to exist, rejects any form of a negotiated solution, and calls for the death and eviction of all Jews from Israel. Per Article 6 of Hamas Covenant 1988, Islamic Resistance Movement “strives to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine…” and per Article 13, “There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors.”
Both Israel and Hamas respond to each other’s provocation with a never ending cycle of escalating violence, each party believing they are the aggrieved entity.
According to Efraim Halevy, former head of both Mossad (Israel’s CIA) and Israeli National Security Council, “each time (Israel) succeed(ed) in damaging the (Palestinian) leadership, you find a new (Palestinian) leadership, which is probably more extreme than the leadership that has been cast aside.”
Left unsaid is the corollary that this cycle of violence enhances the power of Israel’s far-right political parties, who are committed to ejecting the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza.
This cycle of violence is self-perpetuating.
Enter Saudi Arabia
In 2023, Saudi Arabia was on the verge of officially recognizing the state of Israel. According to Basem Naim, a leader in the Hamas politburo, such a realignment would have “deleted (the Palestinians) from the agenda of the region and international community.”
In a strategic bid to thwart an Israeli-Saudi rapprochement, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (recently killed by Israel,) orchestrated a barbaric attack on Israeli civilians. The plan involved sending sadistic Palestinians to commit heinous acts against Israeli civilians, including rape, mutilation, kidnapping, and the murder of as many Israeli women and children as was possible. The objective was to provoke an overwhelming Israeli military response that would kill innumerable Palestinians civilian, trigger a humanitarian crisis, lead to the world condemnation of Israel and Jews, derail the Israeli-Saudi deal, and draw new recruits to Hamas.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas fighters did as ordered.
On cue, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to Hamas’ massacre by implementing an emotional, geopolitically irrational, domestically divisive, and politically self-serving counter-attack, with contemptuous disregard for the United States’s insistence that he proffer a comprehensive strategic plan.
Netanyahu directed the Israeli military to bomb any structure that might contain a member of the Hamas military, with little regard for the innocent Palestinians who would become “collateral damage,” and with the intent of destroying much of Gaza’s infrastructure.
Netanyahu had two objectives in designing his response to the October 7 massacre, he wanted to use this war as a vehicle to:
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- convince the Palestinian people “If you allow any Hamas members to live among you, you can expect death to rain down from above.”
- burnish his waning political influence by assuaging the moral outrage of the Israeli body politic and thus protect himself from the Israeli judicial system.
Consequences of a Self-perpetuating War
As of today, about two thirds of Gaza’s infrastructure no longer exists, more than 40,000 Gazans have been killed, including 5,956 woman and 10,627 children, 284 aid workers, more than 500 healthcare workers, and 113 journalists.
The U.S. Agency for International Development stated that Israel has refused to allow sufficient international food aid into Gaza, a violation of US law that mandates the US desist from providing military aid to Israel. As a result of this blockade, the United Nations has declared a famine in parts of Gaza.
In addition to the horrific consequences on innocent Palestinians, Netanyahu’s immoral war has unleashed a global wave of anti-semitism, as Hamas intended, that will have ramifications for the world’s Jewish people for decades.
Netanyahu is now repeating his morally indefensible game plan in southern Lebanon, indiscriminately murdering innocent civilians in a futile attempt to kill every last member of Hezbollah.
One year into this morass, Netanyahu still has failed to provide an end game, a strategic plan, to either the Israeli body politic or to the primary guarantor of Israel’s existence, the President of the United States.
The ongoing situation only ensures that Hamas and Hezbollah will have a new batch of military recruits to implement their next attack, and Netanyahu will have replenished his far-right political capital–both outcomes ensure that there will be yet another and more devastating reciprocal attack, in this never-ending cycle of violence.
Seeds of a Just and Durable Two-State Solution
Given these circumstances, there are only four potential paths for the Middle East:
- The conflict continues until Homo sapiens obliterate themselves.
- The conflict continues until America ceases to be Israel’s guarantor.
- The conflict continues until one population—Israeli or Palestinian—is eradicated or subsumed by the other.
- The world community alters the geopolitical realities, compelling both parties to accept a just and durable two-state solution as the least undesirable among undesirable options.
If the combatants are left to their own devices, there is no off-ramp to the conflict. There needs to be an external intervention.
Recent events have altered the local geopolitical situation in a way that portends favorably for an external intervention:
- The recent deaths of the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, and two leaders of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, have degraded these terrorist organizations.
- Saudi Arabia wants to have diplomatic relations with Israel.
- Both Gazans (here, here) and Lebanese have voiced displeasure about the presence of having Hamas and Hezbollah fighters located in their communities.
As a result of these changes in the regional geopolitical dynamics lay the as yet dormant seeds of a two-state solution—a process that would require unprecedented international coordination, the application of a sustained and prodigious amount of raw political power, the thoughtful investment of a fortune of financial resources, and patience and perseverance.
So how might this work? How does the world eliminate all the road-blocks to a just and durable two-state solution while nurturing the creation of a peaceful and equitable Middle East?
America’s Responsibilities to Advance a Two-state Solution
While the US has no political influence over the Palestinians, we have immense influence over Israel. The President of the United States should make it clear to the Israeli body politic that America has changed and we will no longer fund or guarantee Israel’s existence if they do not agree to accept a just and durable two-state solution.
Concurrently, America will need to make it clear to Russia and China that we will not tolerate their interference or involvement in any aspect of the creation of a two-state solution.
Ditto Iran. The US has the ability, not yet exercised, to deprecate Iran’s noxious influence on the Middle East, as discussed in Thomas Friedman’s article “It’s Time for America to Get Real With Iran and Israel.” Apparently the Iranian body politic is not too thrilled with their autocratic rulers. Maybe it is time for the US to provide a covert demonstration of our power, either militarily or digitally, which will cause the Iranian leadership to reconsider their political objectives.
Saudi Arabia’s Responsibilities to Advance a Two-state Solution
Saudi Arabia possesses the financial resources and regional influence to shape political dynamics among Palestinians and affect the geopolitical alignments of several Middle Eastern states
Saudi Arabia must make it clear to the Palestinian people that if the Palestinian people evict or render politically irrelevant Hamas and Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia will fund the rebuilding of Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the West Bank.
For this to be a durable solution, Saudi Arabia must also commit to supporting the Palestinians until there is a middle class in the West Bank and Gaza, as this demographic will maximize the probability of a politically stable and moderate Palestinian state. As the Palestinian people are already highly educated, given the requisite financial resources and an absence of violence, it should be possible to build an economically and politically stable Palestinian state.
Saudi Arabia must also commit to using their influence to end all fund transfers to any organization that oppose or impede the implementation of a two-state solution.
The Border States’ Responsibilities to Advance a Two-state Solution
Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt border the combatants. Undoubtedly they would be delighted to see their population of Palestinian exiles leave their territories for a Palestinian homeland.
These border states must commit the resources to ensure that new combatants, supplies, and funds neither reside in nor transit through their territory.
In return for their help, Saudi Arabia and the United States should offer technical and financial support to achieve this end.
If they decline to participate in creating a two-state solution, Saudi Arabia and the United States should make it clear that there will be unspecified adverse consequences at a future date.
America’s Changing Political Demographics and Israel’s Future
While Israel is currently winning this iteration of the Israeli-Palestinian tactical game, Israel’s killing of so many innocent women and children has led to the world’s justifiable condemnation of Israel. This loss of the moral geopolitical high ground is a fundamental threat to Israel’s long term existence.
The war has created a major domestic political problem for President Biden. If he attempts to mitigate Palestinian suffering by deprecating US support of Israel, that effort would like increase the probability of a Trump win. And if Trump returns to the White House, America’s 2.5 century experiment in representative democracy will end, a catastrophe for the US and the world. It will also be a catastrophe for the Palestinian people.
For now, the President’s influence over Israel is limited to mostly jawboning.
As a result of Israel’s voluntarily forfeiting the geopolitical moral high ground, support for Israel among the American body politic has declined.
If Israel fails to markedly realign its political and military priorities to accommodate US interests, there will come a time, certainly within a decade or two, when Israel may no longer be able to rely on the US for financial, geopolitical, and military support. Israel will be on its own, and it is located in a very dangerous neighborhood.
Implementing a Just and Durable Two-State Solution
If Trump loses the upcoming election, the United States should immediately and publicly begin working with the Saudi Arabia to jointly solve the Middle East problem, as this is in the geopolitical interests of both countries, and these conversations may have already commenced.
Of course, all of this is going to take decades to implement, and many things could happen to derail this plan. But the only alternative to a two-state solution is a never ending conflict, with the needless deaths of potentially millions of people.
The Palestinian Naysayers
Hamas, Hezbollah, some Palestinians, and Iran may believe that prolonging the conflict works to their advantage, fostering the illusion that they can eventually eliminate all Jews from Israel.
This belief misreads both history and the resilience of the Jewish people. The notion of removing Jews “from the river to the sea” is not only implausible—it is historically untenable.
Throughout history, Jews have faced more than 70 historical expulsions, with at least 20 occurring since 1900. These events have deeply ingrained a collective understanding within Jewish communities that Israel is not merely a homeland—it is the only safe refuge for Jews. Centuries of persecution have shown that few, if any, countries can guarantee Jews lasting safety and freedom from persecution.
I use to believe that America would forever remain a safe haven for Jews. However, the rise in American antisemitism, spurred on by Donald Trump’s antisemitic, pro-Nazi rhetoric, has made me question that assumption.
This resurgent in global antisemitism has reinforced the Jewish conviction that Israel is their only sanctuary. As former Prime Minister Golda Meir told then-Senator Joe Biden, “We have nowhere else to go.”
Masada was a first-century fortress built atop a desert plateau near the Dead Sea. Jewish rebels took refuge there to escape the Roman army. When defeat became inevitable, they chose to die by suicide rather than face enslavement, turning Masada into a lasting symbol of courage, freedom, and resistance. The phrase “Masada shall not fall again” is deeply ingrained in Israeli culture.
Given Israel’s presumed nuclear arsenal and the belief that it has “nowhere else to go,” it is reasonable to assume that, when faced with an existential threat, Israel would evoke the spirit of Masada. The warning—“Masada shall not fall again”—would signal to its enemies that Israel is prepared to defend its homeland at any cost.
The Israeli Naysayers
With the Israeli military holding a tactical advantage and Israel’s existence guaranteed by the largest and best equipped military in the history of the world, some Israelis may believe that the status quo can be sustained indefinitely.
While Israel and the U.S. have historically shared values rooted in democracy, morality, and liberal governance, these ideals are increasingly eroding in both nations.
Nearly half of the American electorate supports Trump. He is a politician who admires authoritarian figures, has voiced antisemitic sentiments, attempted to overthrow the US Government, prioritizes personal gain over public good, is contemptuous of expert opinion (e.g. meteorologists, scientists, physicians) and lacks any sense of morality. America’s body politic is not what it once was.
A significant fraction of the Israeli body politic believe it is impossible to find a political compromise with Hamas and Hezbollah. I agree with them–Hamas and Hezbollah need to be eliminated from the Middle East equation. However, many Israelis also tend to paint all Palestinians with the same extremist political paint brush and fail to acknowledge the genuine harm that decades of Israel’s expansionist policies have inflicted on the Palestinian population.
For these and other reasons, Israel’s cachet in America is in decline.
It would be a grave miscalculation if the Israeli body politic assumes that this U.S. backing for Israel will continue unchanged for generations to come. Israel must acknowledge these changing American political realities and recalibrate its policies–before it is too late.
There is Only One Option: A Just and Durable Two-State Solution
The status quo is no longer an option.
This incarnation of the interminable Israeli-Palestinian conflict could serve as a catalyst for a just and durable Middle East peace–a better future for all Israelis and Palestinians.
If the United States and Saudi Arabia were to fully commit to a just and durable two-state solution, through the coordinated exercise of decisive geopolitical influence—offering both the carrot of peaceful coexistence with economic and security support, and the stick of isolation from the world’s financial, political, academic, cultural, travel, and sports communities—then the combatants would be compelled to marginalize obstinate political actors and accept the two-state framework as the least undesirable option.
The first priority of a joint US-Saudi engagement is to create the political conditions that will ensure all obstructionist political actors are rendered politically irrelevant.
As Hamas and Hezbollah are irreconcilably opposed to Israel’s existence, they must be neutralized militarily and politically.
Israel’s military actions have already weakened these groups.
Hezbollah’s remaining influence could be curbed by the application of raw American geopolitical pressure on Iran, while Saudi Arabia could undermine Hamas’ legitimacy by establishing formal ties with Israel. With the right incentives and disincentives, Palestinian and Lebanese citizens could be encouraged to expel the extremists from their territories.
The President must make it clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that American support will be conditional upon swift action toward a two-state solution. Netanyahu would then need to make a choice: he can either stay with his hard-right political dogma and risk of Israel’s future, or make a bold, transformative move, akin to Nixon’s visit to China, securing his legacy as a peacemaker.
If the Democrats win the 2024 presidential election, the new administration could initiate the alignment of U.S. and Saudi Arabian geopolitical objectives. This cooperation would pave the way for compelling the combatants to embrace a new political reality—one that prioritizes coexistence over conflict and ensures the long-term survival, security, and prosperity of both Palestinians and Israelis.
As John Lennon and Yoko Ono once imagined:
You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope some day you’ll join us
And the world will be as one
Hayward Zwerling
29 October 2024
10/29/24: Minor editorial revisions