United We Fail, Divided We/They Succeed, A Data Driven Solution

Over the last 3 centuries the number of countries has increased.*

Graph showing an increasing number of countries in the world from 1700 through 2020

My hypothesis to explain this trend is that large, multicultural countries are less politically stable than smaller geopolitical entities which are more homogeneous in terms of their political philosophy, ethnicity, religion, and culture. Thus, larger countries will tend to divide into smaller countries.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that entropy, or disorder, of a system cannot decrease. I suspect this Law, metaphorically speaking, might also apply to political systems. Therefore, when a relatively homogenous component of a larger geopolitical entity develops a self-sustaining population, becomes (mostly) a self-contained economic entity, and acquires sufficient intellectual and/or natural resources, then it becomes inevitable that this smaller, homogenous entity will seek its independence from the large geopolitical entity; as this would allow the smaller entity to promote its own values without constraint.

While this is only a hypothesis, it would explain why America has become increasingly bitterly divided into the “Red United States” and the “Blue United States.” These two entities now have essentially non-overlapping cultural beliefs, moral values, news sources, interpretations of political and historical events, and a divergent regard for the societal value of science, education, public health, and expert opinion.

If my hypothesis is correct, it leads to the conclusion, as discussed in “United We Fall, Divided We (One of Us) Stand” that:

…if we divided into the “Blue” USA and the “Red” USA, each entity would be able to implement policies that are consistent with their own “world view;” as neither would be shackled by the parochial views of the other. … or we can continue as a unified and polarized nation which is incapable of addressing the problems that face our society.

Hayward Zwerling

15 May 2023


*Source: ChatGTP4. ChatGPT caveat: the concept of country, sovereignty, nation-states, tribal societies, city-states, and empires has evolved over time and don’t neatly map onto our contemporary understanding of a “country”.


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