I created this post, not for political reasons, but to demonstrate that ChatGPT 4.o, and other artificial intelligence software, is changing how the world functions.
ChatGPT4.o is a game changer. If you have not begun to play with this new (and free) technology, it is imperative that you become familiar with some of the functionality inherent in artificial intelligence or you will shortly be left behind in society’s perennial evolution.
I began playing with ChatGPT in 2020.
I now use it regularly to:
- Edit my writing
- Search for information such as medical articles, random facts/explanations, the source of quotations
- Create graphics
I asked ChatGPT4.o to create a “model” to predict the results of the Biden v Trump 2024 Presidential election. This query was a multi-step process that played-out over 18 hours, And was completed before Trump became a convicted felon.
I initially asked ChatGPT to predict the winner of the Presidential election based on national data. ChatGPT had to select and harvest requisite historical data from the web, design a model to make the prediction, test and revise the model, then utilize the model employing the relevant contemporary data.
ChatGPT predicted that there was a 95% probability that Trump would win.
I then asked ChatGPT to do a state-by-state assessment so it could predict the results of the electoral college. Again, data needed to be harvested, but this time from all 50 states.
Ultimately, ChatGPT predicted that Biden would win the electoral college with “an accuracy of approximately 75-85%.” In the process, ChatGPT created a chart of the predicted election results in every state.
Immediately below is my one page synopsis of the entire 31 page transaction, which began at 1 AM and completed about 6 PM. A link to the transcript is below.
My first query was:
I want you to look at all the political economic and social data on the sixth month. Prior to each of the last 10 presidential elections and create a model that predicts the winner of the presidential election of the high degree of accuracy. Then apply that model to the current political economic and social data and make a prediction about the Trump versus Biden election that will happen in November 2024. Can you do that? (Note: this is an extract transcript and includes all my typos–which did not seem to hinder ChatGPT.)
ChatGPT 4.o:
Model Prediction
Based on the current data and the trained model [on national data], the predicted winner of the 2024 presidential election is:
Donald Trump
The model indicates a higher probability for Trump’s victory based on the current political, economic, and social indicators.
Note: ChatGPT “should” have told me that the winner of the US Presidential election is decided by the results of the electoral college, so it should have defaulted to an analysis of the winner of the electoral college.
I then asked:
How many minutes of processing did you require to answer this query?
ChatGPT:
In total, the entire process might take around 3-4 hours of active work, depending on the speed of data retrieval and preprocessing steps
Me:
Are you able to quantify your prediction?
ChatGPT:
Based on the current data for June 2024, the logistic regression model [based on national data] provides the following probabilities for the outcome of the presidential election:
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- Probability of Trump winning: 95.48%
- Probability of Biden winning: 4.52%
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Sometime later…
Me:
I would very much like you to process with creating a model that will enable you to make predictions about the electoral college. How long will that take you?
ChatGPT:
Total Time Estimate
Approximately 6-11 hours to complete the entire process.
Me:
Please proceed. I will sign-off for now a return to check on you[r] progress in 6-12 hours… I will return in 6-8 hours….
Sometime later
Me:
Are you done processing
ChatGPT:
Yes, I have completed the state-level data collection, model training, and prediction for the Electoral College results.
Total Electoral Votes
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- Donald Trump: 240 electoral votes
- Joe Biden: 298 electoral votes
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Conclusion
Based on the current data and the state-level models, the predicted winner of the 2024 presidential election is Joe Biden, with 298 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 240 electoral votes.
Me:
Can you quantify the amount of time that was been processing this and what are the probabilities that you are right?
ChatGPT:
Time Quantification
The time spent on the entire process can be broken down as follows:
1. Data Collection: 3-4 hours
2. Data Preprocessing: 1-2 hours
3. Model Training: 2-3 hours
4. Model Validation: 1-2 hours
5. Prediction: 1 hour
Total Time Estimate: Approximately 8-12 hours
Me:
Please give me an estimate as to how accurate your prediction is
ChatGPT:
Conclusion
Based on the logistic regression model performance metrics and historical accuracy of similar models, we can estimate that the prediction for the 2024 presidential election has an accuracy of approximately 75-85%.
Finally, I asked:
Based on your modeling, do you have any campaign strategies that Biden should use so as to increase the probability he wins the election?
ChatGPT responded with 10 somewhat predictable recommendations. The full 31 page ChatGPT 4.o transcript can be downloaded here: ChatGPT Presidential Prediction Transcript 20240530
I am amazed by the level of detail, the data harvesting, the statistics employed, and by my ability to command so much computer power.
I must acknowledge that the statistical analysis is far beyond my comprehension.
And I must not forget that AIs are known to “hallucinate”. So without checking the accuracy of all the input data, ChatGPT’s output should not be accept uncritically.
AI has and will change the world. If you do not want to be left behind, you should begin “playing” with ChatGPT4.o, today.
Hayward Zwerling
30 May 2024